Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
